I haven't posted lately because I've been working on preparing for an actual game at my local hobbyshop.  I'm planning on running The Keep on the Borderlands using the Labyrinth Lord rules.  I hope it goes well.  It's the first time I've DMed in years.  I'm looking forward to it.

Even so I haven't forgotten about my project.  I need desperately to post the probability tree for the combat I worked out.  It's sitting next to my bed on a piece of graph paper, but I need to figure out a better way to present it.  There's A LOT of possible outcomes and there's several ways to get there.  A Markov model will probably work well for this case, but to go any further I'm going to need to come up with some kind of Monte Carlo simulation.  There's just too many states and spending all night multiplying numbers together is a lot of tedious work.  I can say I did the work up front to understand the problem analytically before resorting to some kind of computer model.